has posted an article entitled "5 Killer Smartphones for SMBs" (Small-Medium Businesses).
The smartphones listed are:
- The iPhone
- Blackberry Storm
- Blackberry Bold
- T-Mobile G1 (Google OS)
- Samsung Instinct
What does this mean for Palm; and, its chances of surviving into 2009? Consider this: during the past 3 years, Palm has been promising a new smartphone OS; while RIM has released 2 new versions of their smartphone OS, and Apple, Google and Samsung have all released brand-new smartphone operating systems (the G1 and Instinct are the first devices to run on their respective OSs). Is it any wonder that Wall Street has no confidence in Palm's future?
Palm's footing on the precipice is further weakened by their interim strategy of developing Windows Mobile devices. Note that there isn't a single WinMo smartphone listed above, and look at the marketshare MS has lost over the past year to both Apple and RIM. That means that Palm's only 2 markets are losing competitive share; while the financial crisis causes a huge drop in overall smartphone sales (even the low-margin Centro has seen its sales significantly drop).
The only card that Palm has left to play is its (long-delayed) mythological new operating system (apparantly, it is being developed by members of the Knights Templar and Illuminati, working from a secret laboratory in Atlantis). If the OS were even close to fruition, logic would dictate that Palm focus all of their (rapidly diminishing) workforce onto the new products, and get them out the door for this Christmas (oh, sorry...I mean 'Holiday') Shopping Season.
According to several sources I have asked, Palm has yet to even release an official devkit for the new OS. If they aren't ready to share it with the developer community, how can they continue to promise that it will be running on a new device in early 2009?
Finally, should Palm manage to stay afloat long enough to bring a new OS to market, will it be enough? The iPhone has changed the game, and market expectations. Any new OS has to have something very special to compete (Apple or Google apps...the Sprint network and mobile offerings). Palm has no external network or suite of apps (or, their user base) to leverage...just a rapidly shrinking and disenfranchised group of former customers. Even if the OS should prove to be competitive, it will have to be linked to a very sexy piece of hardware. The last time Palm did anything sexy was the Palm V (released February of 1998). The Treos were never sexy...they just did a lot more then anyone else's smartphones...and, not even that any more.
If Palm can get a new OS and device out the door before their cash is gone, they will only have one shot at this. There are too many devices out there that have a high Q-rating, and offer differentiation in both functionality and hardware. Consumers have no loyalty to the Palm brand; and, will not shell out money for anything less then a revolutionary user experience. I for one, would love nothing better then to see Palm confound all expectations and release a market-defining product/OS. Considering their track record of the past 5 years, my expectations are that my collection of Palm PDAs and Treos will soon be nothing more then momentos of a company that once knew how to do it right.
That's it...I'm off the bloody soapbox.