I'm really at a loss with this one, Sammy. At the NYC Treo RoadShow last month, Ed Colligan and his people went out of there way to explain WHY the T5 and Treo650 wouldn't be running on Palm OS v6.x, and stressed their commitment to the Palm OS platform. IF...it is true, then the only scenario I can envision is this:
Microsoft has put out feelers to the p1 Board about acquiring the company, and this is a tactical answer from p1 to those overtures. Let me explain my reasoning...
1) Microsoft covets the smartphone marketplace, and has not had much success, for all of their marketing and development muscle. I maintain that it is due to a fat, unstable OS wrapped in WAY TOO MUCH hardware for the corporate user to tolerate on a daily basis.
2) p1 (via Handspring)has hit on the first widely accepted form-factor. Lose the antenna, and it might be darn-near perfect. With their minimal muscle, they have already taken the #2 smartphone position away from MS. On top of that, PSI announces the birth of OS v.6x, which looks to have traditional Palm stability, small memory impact and flexibility. To all of that, it has added anything that MS's smartphone OS can do, and is attracting new partners outside of p1.
If I'm MS...I take notice.
3) MS sees the opportunity to score a triple-whammy:
a. Deliver their smartphone platform via the most popular device
b. eliminate a suddenly resurgent rival, in p1
c. eliminate (or cripple) a much larger threat from PSI, by taking away their largest, and most visible hardware partner
Of course, I may just be talking through my hat...this is a regular habit of mine. But, I think it fits the few known facts and MS's established competitive tactics as well as any other scenario. I HOPE I'M WRONG!!!
Bottom line:
IF...this is true, then I believe it is very foolish of p1.
1) Outside of the Treo, they have no serious chops as a hardware shop, and will be marginalized by MS's more established partners, like Dell and HP.
2) IT'S THE OS, STUPID! The loyalty has never been to the Palm hardware...it's always been to that wonderful OS. If p1 aligns or sells themselves to the MS PDA/Smartphone OS, they will quickly lose their client base.
3) This could be a god-send for PSI and the rest of us:
IF...this is true, then PSI would be free of their deference to p1's management, and could really fly. If Cobalt is half of what they claim, they will have no end of smartphone/PDA designers and manufacturers climbing on-board to gain a piece of this desirable pie. Although MS and p1 may count on existing relationships with carriers, the US Congress has finally gotten off their duffs, and are keeping a very close eye on Wireless carriers. Any who would try to suppress PSI devices would have a ton of hurt on their backs.
So, stay tuned...same Bat Time, same Bat Channel
- Peter Arts
Comments